The continued wet conditions that have blighted Winter have continued through March, preventing any real progress in the sowing of cereal crops across the UK. Similar conditions in some of western and mainland Europe, which depend on early sowing to help crops establish and limit any effect that warmer drier weather may have when summer arrives, have been forced to delay planting crops. It is too early to fully know the consequences of these conditions, but following the limited amounts of Autumn sowing, there is further concern that the scare of cereals harvested in the UK and Europe in 2024 will be affected.
Crop Conditions
Wheat
There have been variable descriptions of wheat crops across Scotland and the north of England. Generally, crops sown earlier in the Autumn have established best and are progressing well except where water has lingered and drowned the plants. Crops sown later in September or October are much more variable and the hope that improved Spring weather would help them to recover has now been dashed.
Virtually all crops have now received a first application of fertiliser, with farmers whose crops are not as well established facing the quandary of how well to treat these crops with further fertiliser and pesticides as the cost of these applications may not show sufficient return to be justified. The full effects of the weather should be known at the end of April, in time for our May report.
Barley
Winter barley is generally progressing well and, following earlier fertiliser applications in late February/early March, many barley crops will be receiving a second application as well as fungicidal treatments, as the weather allows. To date, disease levels are low, despite the continually wet conditions, making these fungicidal treatments preventative.
Scotland has seen only small areas of spring barley being sown. However, this isn’t a cause for concern as many Scottish farmers have successfully sown barley in April previously.
The main concern being expressed by farmers is the uncertainty as to how soon the wet conditions will improve enough to make sowing viable. Once the sowing dates approach the latter part of April, then there will likely be yield penalties due to the shorter growing season.
Markets
Wheat
The latter part of March saw a slight recovery in wheat values for both 2023 and 2024 seasons. The low levels traded at the start of the month, showing March 24 at £164. Have risen to an April price of £180 ex-farm. With the expectation that the market may further recover, some of the more aggressive buyers are willing to pay £4-£5 on top of that price.
This recovery is partly down to Russia holding back on some export agreements, as well as traders having a sentiment that the recent valuations have been too low. The support for the current season is also being reflected in the new season 2024-35 market pricing, with an October price pushing toward £200 ex-farm. As mentioned in our previous report, the differential is due to the need to import next season, from old crop to new has been maintained at around £19-20/t.
With the weather affecting sizable areas of cereal production throughout the UK and Western Europe, it will be interesting to see if the recent bullish trend will continue.
Barley
The availability of old-crop barley has begun to tighten quite markedly through March. The farm-to-farm trade has continued to maintain a value of around £160 ex-farm and although there is less tonnage being offered into the market, there is also noticeably less demand coming forward.
Recent policy changes from the Government in England now limit any applications for the SFI Support Scheme, allowing farmers to sow cover crops and grass/wildflowers across their farm, to 25% of the arable area. This could mean a switch back to growing barley in areas which could have been targeted by the scheme.
It is likely to be May before a truer picture can be drawn on the scale of barley likely to be available in the upcoming harvest. As previously mentioned, even if more acreage is sown into barley crops, the lateness of the sowing is likely to have a negative effect on the yield potential of that crop. So, new crop barley values are difficult to forecast at this stage.