With the bulk of sowing only getting underway in Scotland in the last seven to ten days, Spring 2024 has become one of the latest seasons for sowing spring crops for at least a generation. As we mentioned in April’s update, late sowing conditions have been seen across most of the UK, as well as in some arable areas in western and mainland Europe.
While it is still too early to make an accurate assessment of crop potentials, there is bound to be a concern that the productivity of spring-sown cereals will be adversely affected. Scottish crops may not be as badly affected as those grown in warmer, drier climates, but they are now reliant on good growing conditions to allow them to perform to a respectable degree.
Crop conditions
Wheat
We are now getting a clearer picture of how the winter conditions have affected the autumn-sown crops. While some have developed better than expected, with more plants surviving and growing, a significant majority of the areas giving concern are now at the point where farmers are aware that the worst areas won’t be providing a viable crop. In most cases, these areas only amount to an acre at most, but in some fields, there can be several acres or even hectares affected. In normal circumstances, the larger areas might be considered for resowing with a spring crop, but the soil is still too wet for this to be an option.
More established crops of wheat are now responding to both the warmer conditions and the recently applied fertiliser, so farmers with such crops are expressing some optimism that they can hopefully see a strong performance from them.
Barley
Winter barley continues to progress well, and most will have now received their full top dressing by now. The better conditions that have allowed farmers to sow spring crops have also allowed for fertiliser and spray applications to go ahead without tracking the soils too badly.
Locally, in South East Scotland, approximately 80% of spring barley has now been sown. Although the seed beds were still quite raw when sowing started about ten days ago, the conditions experienced now are very good and, with warmer temperatures developing, this should allow for later spring crops to establish quickly and healthily. A number of the fields sown during the brief window of opportunity that early April offered are struggling to develop as well as would be hoped for and these is little that can be done to help them other than hope for improved weather to ease their stress.
Markets
Wheat
The rise in the old crop wheat market seen at the end of March has continued through the majority of April, particularly in the latter part of the month as the full effects of the wet winter conditions have been inflicting on the European cereal crops has become obvious.
Whereas the April values were around £180 at the start of the month, there are now prices comfortably over £190 ex-farm showing for May movement and, even then, these prices are a bit discounted since many homes are already filled for May movement.
A typical price in Southeast Scotland for a June wheat move is now just over £200/t. With May wheat futures pricing passing, the focus becomes stronger on November futures and the new crop market. This has shown a similar level of recovery during April, and recent November futures traded as high as £208 although, at the time of writing, have slipped back to £204. These prices are helping the ex-farm prices locally trade around £213 for October, with monthly carries of £1.50 to be allowed.
As ever, the weather across Europe, America, India, China and Russia will play a large part in where the markets go from here, but there are uncertainties caused by the Ukraine conflict to be taken into account. There is an undercurrent of sentiment across many in the industry that this bullish support is like to maintain its hold on the process on the ensuing weeks, and possibly months.
Barley
The comment in the previous account that old crop barley availability had tightened has continued to be the case with very few offers for feed barley forthcoming. Although the farm-to-farm demand has eased slightly, the consequences of the wet weather forcing farmers to house their stock later than normal has meant feed mills are quite keen to purchase more tonnes. As would be expected, this has moved the ex-farm feed barley price up to £170+ and is unlikely to ease back between now and harvest.
Now that much of the spring barley sowing is complete, albeit very late in happening, there is a better picture of what might come available for harvest 24, although it is expected that yields will have suffered from these late sowings and as mentioned earlier, performance is now dependant on a favourable summer.
Malting barley values have firmed recently indicating the concern about possible poor crop performance, with current trade around £230 for harvest (in early April, this price was £210).
It is shaping up to be an interesting season ahead!