From its start at the end of 2023, until completion in 2024, this growing season has been one of the most testing and frustrating for many years.
Challenging sowing conditions in late September 2023 were followed by a wet and mediocre winter which led to a Spring that saw farmers sowing crops as late as many can recall. The 2024 Summer won’t be remembered for having many hot sunny days, so it wasn’t a surprise that harvesting conditions have followed the same fashion of being broken, windy, and often wet.
With Scottish farmers still having a large portion of their crops to cut coming into September, many were keeping their hopes up for a month of dry warm days. However, the pattern of cool, damp conditions continued, giving few suitable harvesting days. Despite this, the vast majority of Scotland’s cereal harvest has now been completed and farmers are now turning their attention to sowing crops for the 2025 harvest.
Crop conditions
Wheat
The 2024 harvest has seen the overall yield from wheat crops lower than has been seen for several years. Despite crops harvested earlier performing well, it is anticipated that the average yield will be nearer 8t/ha, which is down from the 8.5-9t/ha seen in recent seasons.
A positive has been that grain quality has been good, with specific weights well above minimum requirements. However, protein content is lower than what has been recorded for quite a few years. Given the wet conditions that have washed more nitrogen from the soil than is normal, this isn’t a surprise.
Barley
Following a respectable Winter barley harvest, the Spring crop can only be described as a ‘mixed bag’.
Yields have varied considerably with Angus/Aberdeenshire and Fife farmers finding crops performing close to normal levels, while growers further North and South experienced lower yields.
Despite a larger area being sown due to the poor Autumn of 2023, Spring barley tonnage will likely be down by a considerable amount when compared to recent years.
As reported in the September report, the grain quality from the spring barley has been very good with low Nitrogen levels and low screenings meaning a large uptake for malting. The later cut crops have started to show some weathering damage with moulds and skinning becoming more prevalent, but the majority of samples have fulfilled the malting specifications comfortably. With a large uptake for malting and the reported lower yields, there could be a consequential effect on available barley as the season progresses.
Markets
Wheat
Since early August, wheat futures have been ‘range-bound’ with trade sitting between £180-£190 for several weeks now. Even with the poor yields from the UK and Europe, the current ex-farm feed wheat process in Central/South Scotland are around £183-£185. This is mainly due to the large carry over stocks from the 2023 harvest, which recent reports say is the largest since 1999-2000, along with continued pressure from the Black Sea export markets and an expected large US maize crop.
At this point it is difficult to see where any potential bullish news can come through to help the 2024 values in the short-medium term. One glimmer of hope for the values going further forward is the news that the sowing conditions across Europe, and much of the UK, are being affected by continuing wet weather.
Russian crops are struggling to get established due to the other extreme - drought! This news won't likely help markets strengthen in the short term but watch this situation develop for markets later this season and particularly for the 2025 harvest.
Barley
Malting prices remain at £190-£195 ex-farm and, at the time of writing, feed barley has firmed slightly to just over £150 ex-farm for an October move.
Given the lower-yielding crops from this harvest and the carry-over tonnage from 2023 being reported at levels unlikely to depress the trade, it is probable that barley prices could continue to firm some more.
Much will depend on market demand both in the UK and across Europe. The local sowing conditions have allowed Scottish growers to proceed well with winter barley drilling, as well as early wheat drilling. This hasn't been the case further south but there is a much wider window for sowing down there and conditions will likely improve enough for most growers to achieve their target cropping.