Higher than average rainfall and low temperatures have seen winter crops not progress as hoped for given how well they emerged from the winter.
Towards the end of March, only oilseed rape was showing signs of strong growth in its stem extension phase, especially in crops that haven’t been damaged by pigeons. Both winter barley and wheat are slow in getting any momentum into their spring growth, which hasn’t been helped by the wet conditions limiting the opportunities for farmers to apply nitrogen top dressings.
Spring cereals have also been delayed in being sown due to the spring weather conditions. The previous two years have seen most of the spring barley in the ground by this point, but this year there is only a very small percentage sown. At this point, it is very unlikely to have too serious an effect on yield, but if it is delayed beyond the middle of April, there is the real possibility of a noticeable drop in yield by the time that harvest comes around.
Crop conditions
As already mentioned, winter cereals are proving slow to get going with the cooler, wetter soils and delays on fertiliser application all taking a toll. Winter barley is now beginning to move towards the first node now and most wheat is just starting stem extension.
Generally, almost all cereal crops are looking good with limited disease issues and there aren’t many areas with low plant numbers, so the potential is still there, but we need a kinder April to help them on their way.
Hopefully, spring barley will start to be sown on a greater scale in the next two to three weeks and improving soil temperatures should help them get well established by the end of the month.
Markets
This season’s grain markets have continued to soften in March, with wheat trading at a recent low of just under £200/t (£197 at the lowest in SE Scotland).
With a lack of export and poor domestic demand, the large wheat crops from the 2022 harvest are finding challenging situations developing to clear the tonnage before the 2023 harvest comes on the scene.
The Scottish distilling demand is holding values north of the border in a stronger position than those seen further south. New crop wheat is now trading at a premium against the old crop to the tune of around £14-£15/t. This differential is unlikely to widen since it would allow farmers/merchants to carry old crops into the new season with carry-on money and storage justified.
The market for feed barley is even more challenging as the continued low demand from the pig and poultry industries has really been felt when trying to find buyers for this grain. This influences the prices being offered for this grain with feed barley, with prices as low as £170 ex-farm in several areas.
Like wheat, new season prices are now the main hope to hold the old crop values from dropping much further. This new season barley is trading at around £20/t higher than the old crop, which means the crop can be moved, stored and still sold with a margin in the new season.
There are still dry conditions in Northern Europe which, combined with the ongoing uncertainty of events in Russia and Ukraine, will continue to give some foundation of support to new crop grain prices.